Damien’s Digest May: What you need to know about the economy this month

Looming recession, national debt, global demand for oil. I’ve read all the news so you don’t have to – welcome to Damien’s Digest: May.

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With a looming recession, household spending has decreased by 2-4% annually and employment has fallen by at most 1%.

While the U.S. economy looks bright today, economic projections over the next few years have shown some significant challenges:

• With a $1.1 trillion national debt, a slow recovery, and low growth, long-term interest rates are on the rise.

• Inflation — the percentage of the Consumer Price Index that a consumer spends on things — has been running at 1.7% annualized.

• More than 70% of American workers are still employed in their jobs, often for lower wages (20 to 30%) than in the past.

• The global demand for oil will only increase, leaving fewer jobs available to American workers.

• At the same time, the global economic order has changed, particularly as China and South Korea have expanded their power as major economies, contributing significantly to economic growth in the last few years.

Damien’s verdict:

All in all, the macro economic outlook this month is very favorable. We forecast a 2-3 percent economic growth rate for 2019, driven by lower gasoline, oil and natural gas prices which will help offset the continued high energy prices as U.S. consumers continue to spend increasingly. In addition, we expect an estimated 4.5 million jobs growth by 2020, driven by higher manufacturing and manufacturing services, manufacturing production and the use of services such as telecommuting and telehealth.

Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment below and let me know what you think!

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